Russia Expects Northern Sea Route Transits To Double & Hit A Record 7 Million Tonnes
The Special Representative of Rosatom revealed that transit cargo shipments along Russia’s Northern Sea Route (NSR) are expected to exceed double the previous volume in 2026.
Russia expects its cargo transits to surpass a new record level of 7 million tonnes, as Vladimir Panov, the Special Representative of Rosatom for Arctic Development and Deputy Chairman of the State Commission for Arctic Development, said in an interview on 27 October. Total traffic of cargo shipments along the route is predicted to exceed 40 million tonnes.
Panov cited efficiency and security as two advantages for the Northern Sea Route. The route from Asia to Europe is up to 30% shorter for specific East Asia–Northwest Europe voyages during the summer-fall season, meaning lower charter costs and faster delivery turnarounds for cargo shippers.
Containerized cargo transit is also showing growth, with transit voyages expected to double from 23 last year to 46 in 2026. The shipment volume of international containerised transit cargo is also set to reach a new high of 600,000 tonnes. The expansion of transit cargo shipments marks a substantial increase in Arctic shipping despite falling short of Moscow’s ambitions for the route.
Russia’s total cargo traffic through the NSR has risen to more than 37 million tonnes over the last two years. In 2024, the volume was 37.9 million tonnes, whereas in 2025, it was 37.02 million tonnes.
The route carried about 4 million tonnes in 2014, which shows a notable bump over the following decade. In 2025, the growth stalled as cargo shipment volume fell by 2.3%, the first drop since 2022, according to the Russian consultancy Gekon via business daily Kommersant. President Vladimir Putin targeted 80 million tonnes by 2024, which was not achieved.
The NSR is a primary export route for Russian Arctic resources. Following flat growth in 2025, transit voyages rebounded, already surpassing 2025 levels by September 2026.
In October 2023, the Russian government announced that Russia and China intend to increase mutual cargo traffic along the Northern Sea Route to 50 million tonnes yearly by 2030.
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