Drewry: Dry Bulk Charter Rates Rising On Unexpected Demand Growth

Increasing trade and contracting supply will support a recovery in charter rates on major dry bulk shipping routes, with the prospect of China importing more coal and iron ore to combat pollution and poor quality, according to the latest edition of the Dry Bulk Forecaster, published by global shipping consultancy Drewry.

Macroeconomic policy decisions by the Chinese authorities have had an impact on the overall dry bulk market, increasing vessel demand on key routes resulting in a steady recovery in charter rates. China’s efforts to revive its economy have helped the iron ore trade to revive and are expected to further boost tonne-mile demand, as Drewry envisages more of the commodity coming out of Brazil.

Dry Bulk Charter

On the investment side, tighter financing options and restrained new ordering have helped the dry bulk market to keep supply in check so far. A high number of slippages and cancellations will impede any substantial growth in deliveries over the next few years. Demolition of ever-younger vessels is expected to result in a slowdown in fleet growth this year. And a similar rate of demolition and delivery in the next year will help deflate oversupply further. Demand growth, which seemed to be an unlikely prospect throughout last year and the early part of 2016, has been helping the dry bulk market come off the bottom.

India’s coal imports increased by 8% in 2015, but are expected to remain flat this year as domestic output will continue to be high. The impending La Niña might impact Australian cargo outflows if rain disrupts rail movement and port activities. This will result in increasing congestion at the country’s ports which in turn will squeeze available coal supply from other sources.

Drewry expects freight rates on the Brazil-China and Australia-China iron ore routes for Capesize vessels to strengthen over the next two quarters, but the return of laid-up vessels to trading could disrupt the expected improvement.

“Demand for coal-carrying vessels will increase in the coming quarters because Japan has decided to increase its coal-fired power generation, while China plans to cut domestic coal production which will increase import demand,” commented Rahul Sharan, Drewry’s lead analyst for dry bulk shipping.

“We further expect the grain trade to remain strong as recent heavy rains have enhanced the prospects for grains in Europe, CIS and North America, especially for maize and barley crops”, added Sharan.

Reference: drewry.co.uk

Disclaimer :
The information contained in this website is for general information purposes only. While we endeavour to keep the information up to date and correct, we make no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, about the completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability or availability with respect to the website or the information, products, services, or related graphics contained on the website for any purpose. Any reliance you place on such information is therefore strictly at your own risk.

In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from loss of data or profits arising out of, or in connection with, the use of this website.

Do you have info to share with us ? Suggest a correction

Latest Shipping News You Would Like:

Get the Latest Maritime News Delivered to Your Inbox!

Our free, fast, and fun newsletter on the global maritime industry, delivered everyday.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *